some time ago when things were looking chipper on the near...

some time ago when things were looking chipper on the near horizon I did a discounted cash flow on future expected earnings (the true value of a firm), included some aggressive assumptions about FDA approvals and timeframes, and came up with something like a $75 (USD MESO) per share valuation. Since that time more trials have progressed, some with spectacular results like CHF, but all failing FDA approval on what I would consider to be "technicalities" and/or outright disdain for stem cell treatments by the approving authorities.

my current view is that the actual expected value of the future earnings remains very high and the results from the trials, while missing the approval triggering endpoints, are indicative of even greater probability for product approvals in the near term. the indicated efficacy from the trials is so good and the potential impact on so large a group of patients that these therapies will not be ignored by the medical community or its approving authorities.

what we are seeing currently with the rapid MSB/MESO price erosion is primarily a general financial risk-off movement of overall global markets. it does not change the fundamental value of the firm, which I consider to remain largely unchanged and potentially improved from my prior analysis.

I remember the big swings in MSB/MESO price as the aGVHD trial completed and the FDA evaluated results and eventually denied approval, in opposition to the recommendations of the advisory committee. this price movement was in relation to a very small market (children with steroid refractory acute graft vs host disease). of course the expectation was for much more to come. i think that if and when we see some of these large market approvals hit, like chronic heart failure (CHF), the price swings upward will be multiples of what was seen with aGVHD.

so I remain positive on the firm and continue to hold and view the current price as a great buying opportunity for those willing to hold through the medium term.

of course, we could see a capital raise because, after all, there is no income. but capital raises often occur after positive news is released and price increases.

my other concern is that competitive products may come to market as trials are completed with possible superior efficacy. that could diminish market potential, but only in those markets where similar trials are conducted.

just my thoughts for the day.