Yeah, I haven't sold a single share and in fact I topped up last week at $1.40. Trouble with charts is they only tell you what's happened in the past.
The value in biota will emerge over time in my opinion. The recent resistance developed to tamiflu and the pandemidc has put relenza stockpiling way up the priority chain. A few solid quarters of royalties should price in the Relenza pipeline to a much greater extent.
LANI? Well that's the most exciting program Biota has... and to be honest it's the most exciting drug in development in the Australian biotech market. The market has gone from blockbuster to megablockbuster status pretty much overnight. LANI is a category killer in my opinion. The license is pure speculation but it's easy to see some more pharmas looking into taking up the ROW rights. It's an excellent fit with other flu businesses like vaccines. My guess is that GSK won't pass it up, the value is just too high.
HRV presents a slight risk, we'll see Phase II soon enough and hopefully they saw efficacy. I know they are not going to target seasonal colds but gee I wouldn't mind paying $30 to get rid of a cold... I know I spend enough on throat lollies and panadol when I get some.
RSV? Triggers a milestone payment up to around 10m if phase II starts.
HCV? Not expecting anything here.
Management? This is a tough one. We'll know more when we see how they distribute profits... I don't mind starting up more early stage compounds but empire building is something to watch out for. Buyback is possible (would have liked it to happen under a buck!) but dividend would be nice... say 10c a share.
Biota has some risk but overall the recent developments has dramatically changed the outlook. It will take time for the market to price it in... give it 6 months and we'll have a better picture.
BTA Price at posting:
$1.38 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
