extended Malaysia BAN by another 3 months (or not) ? Decision in two weeks
In the medium term:
In the summer of 2016: ALU capacities in China cranked / retrieved, resulting in the increase of Bauxite Badarfs. Again this: the total capacity to be resumed can be expected at 1.5 ~ 2mtpy by mid-April. Subsequently the domestic alumina output will rise Rapidly by the end of April.Aside from that, other alumina projects Including Weiqiao's Indonesian project, Easthope's project in Jinzhong (Shanxi) and the Chalco project in Xing County are scheduled to come online soon, leading to to increase in alumina supply in mid-late May. The combination of alumina capacity resumptions and new commissions is likely to increase domestic alumina supply and change the current shortfall situation. A fundamentally reverse in supply / demand can be expected between June ~ August.
Expert report should be ready 15 April. Gulf shareholders will probably decide in the second half of April, whether they accept the offer.
I personally can imagine that Metro raise offer by 1 : 4 shares and then a large part of Gulf shareholder agrees, after the expert report says that the previous offer 1 : 3.5 is "fair and reasonable ".
Medium term:
Metro: 4-5 million DFS end June 2016
Gulf: Final EIS Report May 2016, Project EA in June 2016 and EA approval from June to October 2016
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