There have been quite a few developments since my last summary update on 4th August. This is my updated summary of the Mexican (particularly Nuevo Leon) situation today:
1. The Nuevo Leon Government flagged some months ago (May) that the secondary school pilot was successful and that it would be rolled out in full in the 2008-09 school year.
2. Shortly following that, it was announced that the program would be extended to private schools.
3. At the time of the secondary school pilot (Feb 2008), the UANL announced it would investigate the possibility of testing
4. More recently (last month) the Department of Education announced the liklihood of extending testing to all universities and tech colleges at the commencement of the 2008-09 school year.
5 Universities and colleges commenced the 2008-09 year on the 4th August
6. The testing of both school and uni students is subject to parental approval, submitted in writing
7. One university (UANL) has announced that it has received 80% parental approval and will be commencing testing
8. Anouncements from other universities and colleges should be forthcoming
9. Secondary schools commenced the 2008-09 school year on Monday 18th August. (The Department of Education wrote to all parents in June seeking their written endorsement of the testing program)
10. On 22 August (last Friday), The Secretary of Education announced the roll out of the testing program in secondary schools. It is to be implemented in 200 of the States 800 secondary schools (with the other elements of the Safe Schools program implemented in all 800 schools). It will begin any time from now and will be random. Only the State Government knows which 200 schools. The schools don’t know. They will be tested by surprise.
11. Private schools are not in the mix yet – but a process is under way to bring them in. The process is subject to the same sort of psychological testing undertaken in government schools last year.
11. On 23 August, the UANL announced further details of the testing program. The testing is to be done on a sample (2,600) of the first year student population of around 25,000. It will be undertaken at random, by surprise and will be undertaken in the first semester (commencing any time)
13. In his 2008-09 school year inauguration speech, President Calderon flagged the extension of the Safe Schools Program (including the inspection of backpacks and anti-doping components) from 8 thousand to 14 thousand educational institutions, across the country.
(There will be many battles fought to bring this about – BUT it is a strong positive lead from the top. As Dkisane and DH have intimated, the success of the Nuevo Leon roll out will be crucial here. Success will make it far, far easier for the Federal Government to get on the front foot and promote nation-wide testing more vigorously).
12. Express Diagnostic's is obviously aware of all these developments and, as announced in the recent Investor Update, has applied to import substantial quantities of Oraline. Approval is expected by the end of August.
So what are the likely numbers for this initial roll out in Nuevo Leon (NOT THE WHOLE OF MEXICO)?
I think around 25 -30,000.
This comprises 10% of the approximate 25,000 first year UANL students and 10% of the 250,000 secondary school students. (There are 800 schools with an average student population of 312. Therefore, the 200 testing sample schools will have a population of around 62,000. Test 40% of them = around 25,000). This is my best guess, based on the facts to date.
We will have to wait and see if these roll out are carried out once a term, once a semester, once a year or only as a once-off
SBN Price at posting:
0.0¢ Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Held
