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02/04/16
20:03
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Originally posted by denbo
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Last time I was asked a question like that, just after I joined HC, I responded honestly naively thinking HC this was some kind of a discussion place where people could share notes and learn from each other.
What occurred was a whole bunch of posts which insinuated I was some kind of a liar, or not a real person or stuff like that.
You can view those posts from about February onwards.
I was a bit shocked and put out by this and I decided from then on that, as is it's a pretty academic question, if I was ever asked again, I'd just ignore it.
However, I'll give you this as an answer.
Right now, I have considerably more shares in SGH than I did then.
And, if I could afford to, I'd increase my holding in a heartbeat.
Hope this helps.
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Good on you Denbo hope it works for you. I have considerably less than ever had as
Originally posted by Melrosian
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Londoner
Put simply SGH isnt totally skooshed with $750M debt, but it certainly is if it stays that way.
There are 3 things which could get SGH out form under too much debt to the "Affordable debt" level.
1. 53000 NIHL cases could divy up a stack of cash by Jun17 ( and by Feb17 we shall be pretty clear about how much)
.....if 300 people beavering produce bad outcome....problem ....review ....wheechle won't whachle.
2. WIP has been written off and Wilson points to C 20% reduction in cases . That generates a smaller stack of cash & big gros profit margins.
3. Will 1 & 2 be enough debt reduction. Dont know. Could be but financial engineering can do the rest.
So we aint lost. We should win ( see 1 above) . I want it sooner than later because I prefer to invest in growth not shrink.
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3 above calls fro REAL IMAGINATION. 98% of Metropolitans will be laughing their socks off at any notion of private retail help in getting there - well I aint metropolitan . Sadly we are not getting a divy and retail usually needs divy. IF research was carried out on shareholder base ( statistical test on 4% of holders) to find out if there would be retail support for a CONV dated High Coupon share.......then SGH would find out how much money they could expect. Then match that with a new class of listed share and a placing. Every advisor would hate/ mock it but AG might end up being a hero as the placing could only take place after the retail bit......and give MotleyNoanalysis something they understood to talk about.
WHY?. because when the injuns ahave you surrounded and are a whooping, you form a wagon circle and load/ point guns outwards. ( dont worry Alex will tell u to save one for yourself and Metropolitan Mike who fled Scotland at birth will be *issing himself at such a silly way to get small lever on additional finance. ) HOWEVER when shareholders fight, people listen. And if it gets us back to PE 10 ...its a 20 bagger. Shh it works in private companies.
mel
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Your response Mel creates more discomfort than comfort with a decision to invest in SGH. Particularly on point 3 re: financial engineering.
This stock will remain for now in the too hard basket for me.
Need to see clear plan resulting from restructuring proposal presented to banks. That was meant to happen by end of March and we hear nothing of as yet. And that end of April milestone now 28 days away.
Guess we will soon know whether banks on board or not with clear SGH plan to find a pathway out of the mess they have got themselves in.