MFG Chart, page-2

1.My opinion is MFG is still paying for that huge under performance during Covid period to Feb 21 compared to other local and US indexes. This is still stuck in the investors mind and media.
2.As soon as we are over that hurdle and start focusing on last 6 months performance only , you will find investors not being worried about MFG performance and start valuing at appropriate SP.
3.when next week’s FUM is reported my estimate is a drop to about 115.5B, as the market has drop from last month. I am sure headline will be very dramatic the way it is going at the moment for MFG.
4. However MFG FUM has still out performed for the 6 months to September 2022, compared to 2021.
5. I have no idea about inflows or outflows for the quarter. My feeling Is it will be negative for the reasons I gave in 1 above.
6.Point to remember is at 115B FUM at end September will be 15B more than at the same time last year and therefore EPS for the HY 22 will be 20cents hire around $1.35.
7. The other unknown is about Barrenjoey. I have added up the deals they are involved at this stage and it is staggering $380B or so, of course some jointly managed. I would imagine fees will be sufficient for Barrenjoey to make little bit of profit or break even the least for next two years.
8. It is very competitive businesses Barrenjoey is involved and lumpy too. I don’t know how investors will treat it on going basis, until we have few years of results. As Hamish said $156m already invested and paid for and MFG can just stop there in any event. So even with nil value to Barrenjoey business, FUM business EPS for next year forecasted by many are around $2.60. On reasonable PE of 18 valuation should be about $46.
9.My personal valuation is more for various reasons like lower A$ in the next few years and FAANG stocks to do better in the long run.
I am hoping investors will change there outlook over with next half year results.