MFG Fair Value, page-17

thanks lost for the article.
Its in cases like these that I like to do:
*blue sky
*Grey sky
comparisons.
Blue sky obviously being better case scenario and Grey Sky being more 'lower base line'.

So following on from your article, if this would come to fruition, then this would replicate the data coming out of UBS and Morgan's forecast analysis.

So if we follow on from this, then downside is EPS of $1.46 in FY24. This would be a PE in FY24 of around 13.5 which sounds OK.
More importantly assuming 90% payout dividend in FY 24 would be 6.5%
All based of a $20 share price.

So basically even following the more bear brokers UBS and Morgans:
FY22 dividend 11%
FY23 dividend 8%
And then dropping to 6.5% in FY24.

For myself, I am always on the look out for not just a return on my capital, but a return of my capital.

So I think to myself (excluding tax effect):
Well I punt $20 now, if i get the FY22 and FY23 dividend I have nearly 20% of my capital returned to me in just two years.

This drops my capital at risk to just $16 in two years, but from this I have to subtract the NTA of $5 odd, leaves me with $11 of capital at risk.

At $11 of two years out at risk capital, and with an FY24 dividend of $1.3, I would regain my capital in 8 years (leaving the NTA exposed).

This all based on the more bearish UBS and Morgans case.

If I use the more blue sky morningstar case, then my capital will return much much faster.

So basically at $20 it stacks to me, even using the bear case brokers.

Hence why I am more than happy to take an additional punt and increase my exposure.