For morningstar:
As said they try to estimate long term value.
Whilst morningstar also estimates significant further fund outflow as a result of the St James decision, morningstar also factors in the internal fund growth through organic price growth (ie the underlying portfolio increasing over time).
Morningstar also believes the fee structure will largely remain the same.
As a result Morningstar essentially sees earnings being stagnant over the next 3 years:
FY22 EPS $2.52
FY23 EPS $2.48
FY24 EPS $2.38
So from this one can see why morningstar believes the fair value is much higher at $38.
MFG Fair Value, page-4
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