Happy holidays all. Trying to figure this one out for myself. Views on these quick/indicative figures are welcome.
As at 30/06/2021: Debt = nil Cash, term deposits, etc = $213.2m Mgmt fees earned but not paid = $113.7m Investments in own funds = $452.5m Barrenjoey stake (at cost) = $114.5m Guzman stake (at cost) = $102.9m FinClear stake (at cost) = $19.7m Total financial assets = $1.01bn
Average mgmt fee for FY2021 = 0.61% FUM as at 30/11/2021 = $116.4bn SJP mandate = $18bn Remaining FUM = $98.4bn Assumed mgmt fees = $600.2m Expenses for FY2021 = $106.9m Assumed pre-tax profit = $493.3m FY2021 effective tax rate = 21.4% Assumed post-tax profit = $387.7m
Today's market cap = $3.89bn Implied value of business = $2.88bn Current P/E of business = 7.4
I'm comparing these blokes to PTM, for which the equivalent figures are (simplifying things) something in the order of: financial assets $262.5m; assumed post-tax profit $140.1m; today's market cap $1.54bn; implied value of business $1.28bn; current P/E of business 9.1.In other words, MFG's business is trading at an 18.7% relative discount to PTM's, using very rough/back-of-envelope figures. To close that discount, MFG's post-tax profit would need to drop to $316.5m, which suggests the market has priced in FUM dropping a further 15.1% (from $98.4bn to $83.5bn). All of this assumes no cost-cutting so all lost revenue equals lost profit.
(Note, in case the "quick/indicative/rough/back-of-envelope" qualifications above didn't make it obvious, these figures are extremely high-level estimates, designed only to give a flavour...)
MFG Price at posting:
$21.21 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
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