Performance fees can't really drop from here. Bulls with $50+ target prices, including Morningstar at $55, are assuming it 'reverts to the mean' pre Covid. That could be a dangerous assumption considering the forecast returns for global equities is near zero.
FUM could drop in a real bear market, but at least Magellans investments are pretty defensive. So management fees ought to be more stable.
Regardless, my base case is for stable dividends around this level for at least the next little while - long term they hopefully grow.
MFG Price at posting:
$35.37 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
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