I have written up and shared my research on FinTwit for anyone...

I have written up and shared my research on FinTwit for anyone interest. But essentially, agree with your point @Chella but I'm nowhere near as bullish. However, I don't think one has to be that bullish to see value in Magellan. Using a bunch of bearish assumptions as my 'base case' (FUM growth <4%, management fee growth of <1%, performance fees of around $45m p/a, Barrenjoey not breaking even until FY25, etc), I still see value at today's price. Happy to share via FinTwit the details of my model for anyone interested, but here's the key summary:



The other valuation I have looked at is using the Chowder Rule, which essentially is dividend growth investing. With a forecast dividend for FY22 of around ~$2.50 and 75% franked, talking grossed up dividend yield around 9.6% at today's price. That's insane. On FY21 dividends, Magellan is now the 14th highest dividend payer on the ASX. Take a look at what else is paying that much in dividends, and they're all a bunch of cyclicals or serious value traps.



My guess is that only one of the four key drivers of earnings needs to work for Magellan to turn out into a good investment. Either increase FUM, maintain management fee ratios, achieve performance / performance fees, or decent returns on the MCP investments. Betting on one of four ain't so bad, particularly when you look at the historical trend of Value vs Growth and how the portfolio is positioned going forward:



GLTAH.