@lost, Great analysis. I would like to add that Australia and New Zealand generate ~ 60% of revenue. Magellan has a large overseas business through its 100% ownership of frontier partners. I believe Magellan's average fee is 61 basis points (0.61%), (Magellan annual report, 2021, pg.14).
Source: https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/MAGELLAN-FINANCIAL-GROUP-10354809/company/
I agree FUM growth will be approx. 5-6%, the driver will be fund performance, magellan is reaching a saturation point in Australia where they are in nearly all model portfolios, adding a grossed up dividend of ~8% to the 5% FUM growth gives a total return of 13% p.a going forward, excluding magellan capital partners.
MFG in the BUY zone, page-678
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