Don't think I said there would be no buyers, or more correctly potential buyers, but more there wont be a whole-of-company sale. It will come down to a break-up and sell off.
Now you offer Bega and Saputo doing a combined bid, that would not be smart. However there is a variance to that scenario which takes a different path because the MGC Board can sell off bits of MGC up to a point without having to get shareholder approval. If they sell off targeted assets to Saputo in the southern region where Saputo operates and in a different transaction sell off the northern assets to BEGA it would make sense as it would not attract ACCC or FIRB attention. The problem with that is it leaves some other bits in Gippsland, Tasmania and a whole range of other items and outstanding matters to either find a home with someone else or be acquiesced (including the Trust).
I don't mind a BEGA buyout at all but I suspect it is more bravado than financial or strategic nous as the Board of MEGA know full well the risk they would inherit and the premium required.
I still can't see a whole-of-company sale occurring, not this year and not the next.
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Don't think I said there would be no buyers, or more correctly...
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