I understand longs would like this to straight line up to 1.50...

I understand longs would like this to straight line up to 1.50 but that wont happen until results come out showing that the numbers are correct for FY16. I think the management have kitchen sinked worst case result for farmers & unit holders.

I think its important understand the pro-forma past 5 year results.

2012 -> 5.19
2013 -> 4.83
2014 -> 6.13
2015 -> 5.67
2016 -> 4.75 to 5 (most likely at upper end due to AUD).. farmers will get 5.47 this year

Now the current price is not extraordinary low. infact its inline with the 2013 prices.

now lets look at the distributable milk pool

2012 -> 1.2bil
2013 -> 1.13
2014 -> 1.6
2015 -> 1.45
2016 -> ?

now lets look at NPAT.

2012 -> 49m
2013 -> 40m (inline with this year)
2014 -> 97m !!
2015 -> 72m
2016 -> guidance is 40m (down from 80m)

So my thoughts are this ->
1. I dont think we will lose dividend as milk prices are not Extrodinary weak.. I also think we will maintain this yield (8 cents or 8% net div). so.. in summary.. history shows that even in a bad year (2013) the NPAT can still look good for unit holders.

I dont think management will come up and try and talk up the unit price as their first priority is farmers. So we will have to wait for results and next years opening farmgate price. Until then I think we bounce between 90 cents to 1.10.