OK, so short sales have been light, so its obvious a large long seller is unwinding. Here are the facts.
1. Anchorage capital had 11.9m shares - they filed that they are not a " substantial holder"... this means they went below the 5% threshold. If you look at the disclosure you will see that they sold 2m shares. Now looking at the broker data, you will see this trade was done on the 9th March with the broker instinet. see pic
You will also see the same broker sold 250k ish shares on the Friday 6th - this again corresponds to anchorage capitals reporting.
So .. lets go on.
Achorage capital is now below the 5% threshold, but still holds 10m shares. Are they unwinding the whole positon? would they start selling and just stop? no. my thoughts are they are unwinding the whole lot - and they are using the broker instinet. So lets go and see what instinet did on the 10th.
on the 10th, Instinet traded a value of 834,120 which is about 710k shares based on the VWAP of the day of 1.1154
On the 11th(yesterday) , instinet traded $965,259 or about 900k shares.
So in summary - I believe anchorage capital has sold approx. 3.6m shares of their total 12m... and are selling alittle everyday. We most likely have another 5 days of underperformance while the market rebalances or unless a larger buyer comes into action(unlikely given the headlines).
So should you buy now? prob not, but you should definitely buy while these guys are selling.. (so sometime in the next week).
Goodluck.... I believe we will bounce hard when anchorage capital finishes selling. I will be adding more each day over the next week.
