The discount on MGF is now down to around 11% from near 20% a...

The discount on MGF is now down to around 11% from near 20% a few months back. If the discount continues to drop below 7.5% then the options are back in the money.

There seems to have been a steady & progressive increase in demand for MGF - which makes sense given the signs are all there that MGF will undergo a restructure to close the gap post option expiry. Magellan are unlikely (and potentially unable) to make any announcement to this effect until post MGFO expiry - thus it's still speculation that a restructure will occur though the signs seem to point in that direction IMO.

If we accept that a restructure is likely to occur that closes the gap (similar to MHHT) then that could occur in two ways:

1. The gap is retained until March 2024 due to the existence of MGFO then closes rapidly once the restructure is announced: or
2. The gap progressively closes in anticipation of the option expiry - thus bringing MGFO back in the money and creating the investment opportunity.

I've clearly taken a large position in MGFO on the basis that I see option 2 playing out.

I'd truly be very interested to understand why others believe that option 1 is the mostly likely? Given the market is forward looking and MGFO is a side-show to the real investment (MGF).

Disclaimer: MGFO is clearly a speculative investment. Seek your own financial advice.