Here are some quick numbers I've run to estimate whether there...

Here are some quick numbers I've run to estimate whether there will be scaleback on the SPP

QBE offers a good precedent, as it traded strongly above the SPP offer price during the offer period, received high take-up as a result and was scaled back.

QBE:
~102k shareholders
Max per shldr: $5k
Potential max (ie if 100% take-up): $510k
Actual: $226.5 (ie ~45% take-up) - high take-up as trading price was well above offer price
Scaled back to $100m

Other SPPs like IAG and CBA have lower take-up, but I would argue these are less relevant as due to the demutualisation/privatisation history of these companies. I suspect the registers are full of fairly unsophisticated mum and dad shareholders who receive forms in the mail asking for money and just throw them away

MQG:
~133k shareholders
Max pp: $15k
Potential max: $2bn
Likely to be scaled back to $200m

Therefore, over 10% take-up = scaleback under a $200m limit. Given where MQG is trading relative to the SPP offer price this is likely.

The $200m number is being touted by a few research analysts as fact - which leads me to believe that this has been communicated to them by MQG (eg through the results presentation) even though it is not in any documents that have been released to the ASX. So I'm going to assume this as a base case for the time being

SPPs are usually tacked on at the end of placements to keep the retail shareholder base happy, and the amount of capital raised through the SPP is usually only a fraction of that raised in the placement. Even if you think the $200m figure is on the low side, going on precedent it would be highly, highly unlikely that MQG would be accepting more than $500m out of the SPP at the very maximum.

It's also unlikely MQG will want to raise excess capital given it is highly dilutive at a consensus FY10 p/e of 8.3x at the offer price. If they were in desperate need of masses of excess capital, they would have just made the placement bigger. So please do not say that they will not scale back because 'they need the capital' based on your gut feel because that is not the case as of today. Post-placement they do not need more capital, especially not when it is issued at a near 30% discount.

Long story short, expect high take-up, a low target amount to be raised under the SPP, and brutal scaleback.