No question, I will stay for very long time beyond production. I might sell some in 2024 to pay off my mortgage but will keep the rest for divvy. I will be stupid to exit.
I can almost guarantee if they come up with 1mtpa initially, it will just be for a year or two. That is just to go to production quick and start generating cashflow. All cashflow will then be used for expansion. They will calculate NPV at multiple production level at multiple point in time. My guess is:
4 mtpa 2024
10 mtpa 2027
15 mtpa 2030
This will be reflected in project NPV calculation. I think the most important step here is to get this project to production. Management will do everything to achieve this, either starting with small (even 1 mtpa) or getting someone for JV who can bring in cash for project funding to start with higher production level. Offtake agreements will be another way to raise cash for capex as someone already mentioned here.
In terms of CAP, I only have small position on it compared to MGT. I reckon it’s a great project too so have significant upside potential. I still want to see more effort from management before increasing my position. MGTs DFS is already underway from what I can read from the last project update whereas CAP still has to raise cash for DFS. Also CAPs plan to start at 10mtpa is ambitious so there will be some hurdles but big potential upside if successful.
I will stick to both projects. Will be wonderful if both succeed and I reckon both will.
MGT PFS Predictor Game, page-212
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