With the WA border not opening as expected on the 5th of Feb,...

With the WA border not opening as expected on the 5th of Feb, wonder how much that will play into the majors IO output. Most sites are already struggling with numbers, especially those under construction. Plenty of workers from East went home for the Christmas break and haven’t been able to get back over yet. Terrible for those with families they can’t see and for workers who can’t make bank. The timing for us though, couldn’t be more perfect. Not all will be willing to come back for an undefined period of time where they will be effectively stuck in WA, the requirement of having both covid shots plus booster for entry, 14 days quarantine and submitting continuous testing. In addition to whatever their workplace requires. The majors are already on different media saying output is decreasing and the time frames for completion on various projects is being affected.

WA will have to open up eventually and won’t have the same level of herd immunity that’s currently growing in other states. There hasn’t been major outbreaks like over east. Once covid begins to reach mine sites there could be numerous disruptions. If workers are forced to self isolate in camp, will they be paid for that? Currently on most sites if you’re stood down awaiting test results you have to use your sick leave to get paid. How many workers will decide that it isn’t worth it doing two weeks quarantine paid at 7.2hrs base rate per day just to get into the state plus the potential of catching covid on your journey to site and not getting paid. Projects over east like the Snowy Hydro 2.0, Brisbane Cross River Rail and Sydney/Melbourne tunnel projects are starting to ramp up. The worker shortage problem could potentially get a lot worse then it is now.

The current situation may very well negate, or even just lessen the upcoming drop in IO prices with the Beijing Winter Olympics if there’s less IO actually available due to worker shortages. Any long term disruptions will be good for IO prices while making our project look more feasible to investors. With Vale’s output also struggling during their rainy season, the next two months will be very interesting.