Below was posted by Tran in the HIO forum, why can’t our...

Below was posted by Tran in the HIO forum, why can’t our discussions be similar to this?

There are 3 sp targets that we should focus on:

- Immediate target: MC/NPV = 20%
Immediately. Just need the Resource Upgrade Statement to confirms 400mil tons in the next few weeks.

- Short term target: MC/NPV = 40%
At construction ready stage (around July 2023)

- Long term target: MC/NPV = 100%
Couples of years into production.


SUMMARY:

Under main or similar assumptions of:

- 400mil tons resource
- 20mtpa
- LOM = 20years
- Product selling price = USD $170-$171/ton
- Fe62% = USD $120/ton
- Direct slurry pipeline from mine to port
- All-in-cost = CFR USD $51/ton thanks to significant cost savings from the direct slurry pipeline. MGT estimated its all-in-cost of USD $40/ton if it goes with 7mtpa plan gives me confidence that our assumed USD $51/ton is generous.

1. THE PFS FIGURES:

NPV8% = AUD $20bil
MC/NPV at 20% = $4bil
MC/NPV at 40% = $8bil

2. THE KPS REPORT FIGURES:

NPV8% = AUD $29bil
MC/NPV at 20% = $5.8bil.
MC/NPV at 40% = $11.6bil

(please disregard the sp targets in previous post where I used SOI of 1.101bil shares because it was incorrect. That 1.101bil shares was only relevant to 10mtpa scenario. That's why I only mention MC/NPV ratio targets here).

3. THE IIR REPORT FIGURES:

SP TARGET AT 20% MC/NPV = $4.08
SP TARGET AT 40% MC/NPV = $8.17
SP LONG TERM = $20.43.


I believe it will take time for people to comprehend these numbers because they are too overwhelming for all of us. But it is not 1 set of numbers. It is 3 seperate sets of numbers and they correlate very well to one another.

This Hawsons Iron Project is clearly 1 of the biggest and the best projects in Australia in recent time.

That's why world famous mining consultant Wood McKenzie called it "world's best undeveloped iron ore project".

That's why the Australian government awarded it "MAJOR PROJECT STATUS".

That's why the NSW government awarded it "State Significant Development".

That's why Bryan and the team is confident to apply to the SA government for recognition of "MAJOR PROJECT".

FMG went from 10c sp in 2003 to current $220 sp (accounting for 10:1 split in 2007), plus $40-$50 dividend since its IPO. In other words, from 10c to $~$260 sp.

CIA was 15c in 2016 to $1.15 in Feb 2017, and then onto $8 sp now with 20c dividend.

THE MARKET WILL WAKE UP TO HAWSONS PROJECT'S TREMENDOUS VALUATION IN THE WEEKS AHEAD WHEN THE RESOURCE UPGRADE HITS THE NEWS. NO DOUBT ABOUT THAT. THIS IS JUST THE BEGINING OF THE TSUNAMI RE-RATE.