MGT

2.78%

18.5¢ magnetite mines limited.

Great post Pasdec. Would be nice to see this one pushed up to a...

First 1410 Last

Share
Profile

Follow
WeeWeeTraders67

486 Posts.

39

27/01/21

07:57

Post #: 50456944
Share

Originally posted by pasdec: ↑

Yep I would think 10mtpa is at the bottom of the range given the Royal Resources PFS figures and studies looking to push it towards 100mpta...I'm not an analyst and I know this has been done before but just flying a kite here ...but with current Fe price about USD169/dmtu probably not sustainable so being conservative I found an avg price between 2003-2019 of USD93/dmtu so very roughly, using base case of 10mtpa x 93=930M p.a.Gross Revenue. Whats' the C1 going to be? Royal Resources had $30 OPEX, I think MGT they are looking to be in the bottom quartile so using figures pulled from llast year (BHP ~11.82, FMG 13.27 wmtu) but because we are using gross figures to dimension the project how about $20 as a WAG (Wild Assed Guess)! To do the NPV and valuation you should use an after tax annual income but again roughly using these figures about $730M p.a gross and 30% tax rate $511M NPAT, then use mine life of 50 years for simplicity (half the 3.9Bn tonnes JORC inferred and indicated, say 2B tonnes at 10mtpa would give a mine life of 200 years if its 100mpta 20 years so 50 seems a good compromise?). What discount rate? Cost of Capital? expected Return rate? Just pick 8% for ease. CAPEX Royal DFS said $3-3.5Bn but low strip and given Next Ore let's say 2.5Bn to be on the safe side. That would give us an NPV of about $8.1Bn/3.5Bn SOI, so at production1Q2025 about $2.30/sh given no dilution CR etc . Basically 100 bags 4 years away, but this is not going to be Debt funded so CR or some other mixed funding model, the Sh value accretion slope depends on this and not sure what it will look like? I expect it's a step function with many hurdles and risks along the way, does the world (China) want or need magnetite?) it may turn out to only be a 50 bagger.But then again if/when they get it to production and push it towards 100mtpa Wow!
I did this on the back of a tissue box in a coffee shop so happy for you to point out obvious mistakes in thinking, numbers or anything else I'm not precious.
DYOR, GLTAH, Wombat I miss you on this thread!

Expand

Great post Pasdec. Would be nice to see this one pushed up to a top rated post.

MGT Price at posting: 2.1¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
6 Upvote

0 Great analysis

Reply

Top Stories

VUL

Vulcan appoints investment bank and M&A veteran to board

MM8

Medallion Metals kicking off 15,000m drill run at Ravensthorpe gold play

NAM

Olam Agri raises Namoi takeover offer to 75 cents a share and receives shareholder backing

MLS

Metals Australia kicking off plant study at Lac Carheil; Canadian tariff tailwind potential

ASN

Utah authorities sign off on Anson's lithium extraction plans at Green River

MKG

Mako sniffs gold at 170 g/t at Cote d’Ivoire's Napié play

Dale Gillham's weekly wrap: US fracking support boosts outlook for Australian gas stocks

ENV

Enova Mining unveils "high-grade" REE drill hits at Coda North, Brazil

Week 37 Wrap: HotCopper likes Cuban oil; markets shrug debate off for Putin; firebrand quant says social media a market threat

AZY

Antipa divests its Citadel interest to JV partner Rio for A$17M, refocuses on Minyari Dome

There are more pages in this discussion • 12,519 more messages in this thread...

First 1410 Last

Add MGT (ASX) to my watchlist

(20min delay)
Last 18.5¢		Change 0.005(2.78%)		Mkt cap ! $18.93M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
19.0¢	19.0¢	18.5¢	$955	5.081K

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
5	90763	18.0¢

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
19.0¢	94170	6

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
5	90763	0.180
5	68682	0.170
3	14400	0.165
1	8000	0.160
1	10000	0.150

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.190	94170	6
0.200	19530	2
0.220	3773	1
0.250	3120	1
0.000	0	0

Last trade - 16.10pm 13/09/2024 (20 minute delay)

MGT (ASX) Chart

Great post Pasdec. Would be nice to see this one pushed up to a...

Vulcan appoints investment bank and M&A veteran to board

Medallion Metals kicking off 15,000m drill run at Ravensthorpe gold play

Olam Agri raises Namoi takeover offer to 75 cents a share and receives shareholder backing

Metals Australia kicking off plant study at Lac Carheil; Canadian tariff tailwind potential

Utah authorities sign off on Anson's lithium extraction plans at Green River

Mako sniffs gold at 170 g/t at Cote d’Ivoire's Napié play

Dale Gillham's weekly wrap: US fracking support boosts outlook for Australian gas stocks

Enova Mining unveils "high-grade" REE drill hits at Coda North, Brazil

Week 37 Wrap: HotCopper likes Cuban oil; markets shrug debate off for Putin; firebrand quant says social media a market threat

Antipa divests its Citadel interest to JV partner Rio for A$17M, refocuses on Minyari Dome

Featured News

Buyers (Bids)

Sellers (Offers)

Featured News

Great post Pasdec. Would be nice to see this one pushed up to a...

Top Stories

Vulcan appoints investment bank and M&A veteran to board

Medallion Metals kicking off 15,000m drill run at Ravensthorpe gold play

Olam Agri raises Namoi takeover offer to 75 cents a share and receives shareholder backing

Metals Australia kicking off plant study at Lac Carheil; Canadian tariff tailwind potential

Utah authorities sign off on Anson's lithium extraction plans at Green River

Mako sniffs gold at 170 g/t at Cote d’Ivoire's Napié play

Dale Gillham's weekly wrap: US fracking support boosts outlook for Australian gas stocks

Enova Mining unveils "high-grade" REE drill hits at Coda North, Brazil

Week 37 Wrap: HotCopper likes Cuban oil; markets shrug debate off for Putin; firebrand quant says social media a market threat

Antipa divests its Citadel interest to JV partner Rio for A$17M, refocuses on Minyari Dome

Featured News

Buyers (Bids)

Sellers (Offers)

Featured News