Im still new to this, I think Elliott wave theory might be more useful for long term analysis, but I also don't know very much about it so there is that. I think it is particularly hard to apply TA to the current trading during the CR, as well as what may happen immediately after. Over just the last 1-2 months I'm really just seeing an uptrend, followed by a short downtrend after the CR was announced, and a flatter period of trading during the CR (where say we have averaged around 0.012).
This makes sense to me, the CR announcement was a clear factor that would stop buying, and encourage selling (when there was already some profit taking going on). Downtrend between announcement and the start date of the CR caused by selling pressure which I think is just people freeing up capital to invest in the CR. Now the flat period of trading is likely due to a balance between sell pressure (taking advantage of spread between current market price and CR offer price) and buy pressure (some people have already purchased their entire entitlement and want to accumulate while there is sell pressure on the SP, some were not on the register by record date and are accumulating for the same reason).
Regarding what will happen after the CR, well if we look at accumulation, we see a steady increase from around 50M to just under 300M in the last 50 days or so. This just tells me there is some whopping momentum prior to the CR and we obviously cant see everyone accumulating at CR prices, but all of this leads me to think the CR will be fully or over subscribed (
@1912, I think you mentioned you felt the same way). I just see accumulation continuing in the near term following the CR and I think the market will react positively due to CR oversubscription and we may see a breakout sometime after the 29th assuming there is no extension to the closing date (which has to be announced by tommorows close I believe)
The notification of a shortfall (if there is one) is due on Friday October 2nd. The Issue date of securities is due on Tuesday October 6th, so we should have a clear idea of how subscribed the CR has been as well as what we have all been allocated (hopefully we all get our fill!). I would say trading on the 5th will be interesting (I mean it is also a Monday), and for the rest of the week onwards for that matter. Regarding predictions that the price will drop below 0.01, you have to ask yourself, who would be selling at those rates? Especially after the CR? Maybe a few people who were in really early and didn't want to take a longer position but then why didn't they sell with most others when it was up at 1.8c-2c I just don't think there are many people wanting to let go of this stock at anywhere near those values. I understand the sentiment of wanting it to drop to get back in at a cheaper rate, but you may be looking back on this in 1-2 years thinking holy hell, 1c - 1.2c WAS CHEAP!
NOTE:
I also failed to think about the fact there may be a trading halt leading up to the shortfall notification or issue date of securities. Maybe someone who has been through a CR before can comment on or confirm this
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