All very valid and correct points. Building on a few of these points, any project built in Afghanistan immediately risks being taken hostage by political and ideological turmoil. The Taliban would be able to command whatever price they deem fit regardless of markets. Same goes for the warlords whose land thee resources sit on. IS, Taliban, warlords, Al-Qaeda and Afgan nationalists will all be vying for different routes to power over the coming years.
Pakistan has recently banned right-wing religous groups and is already fighting it’s own war against Islamic extremism, with these groups declaring allegiance to the Taliban. Will be very interesting to see how that plays out between Pakistan and China.
Africa is a complete mess. Mali, Ethiopa, Sierra Leone, Somalia, Libiya, Nigeria. There’s wars all over the continent. Religious extremism is rife and any money made elsewhere by the groups in support will funnel into the continent. Once/If resources start moving and money is being made then all hell is going to break out through corruption, greed and religious war.
India has plenty of ore but it’s low quality. Great for the domestic market but terrible for the international. Europe are going to crush their collective climate change goals and use carbon credit/pricing to punish those not following suit. Australia and India’s bilateral trade is going to jump massively in the coming years, our ore is certain to feature with the rise in Indian ambition on the global stage. India - Europe shipping route is quicker then China - Europe and the labour is cheaper.
China are still going to buy our ore at the right price. Cutting steel production increases steel prices which makes construction, the lifeblood of the Chinese economy, more expensive. Relations are going to eventually warm when the Chinese economy need it. With the increase in total debt over the last decade, the CCP won’t take losing their share of the steel market without a fight.
Yes, the current SP is terrible. Yes, anyone who bought at the heights are hurting. But for those who bought looking at the long term then worry less about the current SP and spend the time to research on why this company has so much potential. The SP can turn around with one or two good announcements.
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