Just remember that break even 62% price in the PFS was $54 USD/t...

Just remember that break even 62% price in the PFS was $54 USD/t . Price is currently at $106/t and this is not far off the PFS assumed price of $110/t.

Capex of $675m seems a lot but as MGT move the DFS forward, IO prices will continue to shift and if they stabilise between the $110-150 range then funding the $675m will become easier. My guess is that they will need to inject considerable equity into a funding framework. Can’t recall seeing anything declared by management around that.

My guess would be something like: $200m equity, $200m bank loans and $275m raised linked to offtake agreements. The payback period in PFS was 5 years for $110/t but this halved as prices tipped the $150/t mark. We are soon going to move from the engineering planning stage into the interesting territory of how to fund this baby. Our board has got us to this stage but I wonder how good they will be in that space.

I am more comfortable with the SP in the range it is in now. With the current MC around $90m, MGT is valued at 13.5% of the NPV of $670m (IO price $US110/t) which is consistent with the 10-20% NPV you would expect pre-DFS with no offtakes in place. Much will hinge on the way things shape up over the next 9months ( IO prices, DFS, offtakes, permitting and approvals, funding). A long way to go yet and plenty of obstacles and roadblocks for the team to overcome.

this is a long play to get real production in 2025.