https://www.af r.com/markets/commodities/china-could-struggle-to-halt-iron-ore-price-charge-20220201-p59stm
(remove space ^)

Chinese authorities face a struggle bringing the iron ore price under control, as strong fundamentals and the growing potential for a supply shock conspire to keep Australia’s top export trading near a five-month-high.

Iron ore has defied bearish expectations it would weaken at the start of the year, with restocking demand ahead of Lunar New Year holiday and expectations for further Chinese stimulus driving prices higher.

Following a one-week hiatus because of the Chinese New Year, iron ore rose 1.9 per cent to $US149.40 a tonne on Monday for 62 per cent quality ore in the spot market, according to NAB, advancing 55 per cent in the past three months.

...“The pattern of Chinese jawboning in commodity markets is that it works for a month before prices recover and go higher,” said Ben Cleary, portfolio manager of the Tribeca Global Natural Resources fund.

...“My expectation is that the influence of their jawboning will decline year by year.”...

...“From what I can see, inventories are slightly below seasonal average levels and demand looks strong,” said Mr Cleary.

“We’ve had three months of expanding PMI prints in China, increasing Chinese credit growth, and that bodes well for the next quarter or two, so we certainly don’t see a collapse coming.”

...China’s policy settings, if anything, should also provide support to iron ore prices.

In January, the People’s Bank of China cut the seven-day reverse repo rate and the one-year medium-term lending facility rate by 10 basis points to 2.1 per cent and 2.85 per cent, respectively.

The rate cuts are likely to help drive growth in 2022, with infrastructure investment expected to rise and the property construction sector downturn likely to ease. Both sectors account for 30 per cent of Chinese steel demand....