MGX and GRR. Performance comparison Q4 2021

Over at their place, the Grangers have been having fun posting a number of long term charts comparing GRR to MGX going back into history to stoke their fragile egos. But there is one chart I haven't seen posted over there. And that is the one above which compares Grange [yellow] with the mighty MGX [black] over the last quarter. It sure is an unexpected result! There is a very high correlation. In fact at the end of the quarter, they were dead level, each with a 16% share price increase over the quarter. Not too shabby for either.
Probably most people know that there are many similarities between the two companies. Both are mid-cap IO miners with a large cash balance. Both operated a single mine last quarter. Both have a Chinese company as a cornerstone investor and that investor is also a client for much of the IO output.
On the differences side, GRR have been busy pumping magnetite pellets into ships down in Tasmania all quarter. I'm sure rocket973 will be in shortly to tell us the latest record breaking price for pellets. On the other hand, MGX have still been shipping low grade ore while they remove the overburden from more profitable stuff. The major capital expenditure is over for MGX now. GRR must 'look forward' to a period of high capital expenditure to access more ore.
The biggest difference between the two companies, though, in my opinion is that MGX is in the ASX300 Index and GRR is not. This means that MGX can be held by lots and lots of instos and index tracking funds etc. who are prevented by their mandates and rules from holding GRR. For example, my own Industry Super Fund, in pension mode, has a facility where I can invest in individual ASX stocks, selected ETFs, bond funds etc. But it absolutely does not allow investment in companies outside the ASX300.
I think you can see this difference from the tenor of the conversations on HC. Because of the high insto population here, the conversation is pretty sedate, usually. I don't think many fund managers pay attention to HC. If they do read it, they wouldn't be bothered posting. They are relatively long term holders so the share price is relatively stable.
Completely different over at Grange. There is obviously a high proportion of self-managed super fund types over there who are not restricted in their investments. And few or no instos. Dividends are a big chat topic over there. There was nearly a complete meltdown there a few weeks ago when everyone got into a lather about the dividend policy. That's definitely an SMSF thing. Personally, I don't give a stuff about dividends, when both stocks are quite capable of moving up and down in a day by more than the value of the six monthly dividend. [MGX pays their dividend annually, coming up soon, Mums and Dads!]
Can GRR enter the elite ASX300 Club? It's actually very difficult to say. There are several criteria and Market Cap is just one of them. Others are volume, free float etc. My guess is that as long as GRR has a foreign entity owning about 50% of the stock, then it will be forever excluded. But I might be wrong.
Right now, the Mums and Dads are crowding into GRR to skim off the coming dividend. Hype it up, boys and girls. One odd characteristic of the above chart is that it seems to indicate that through last quarter the GRR price action leads MGX by a couple of weeks, so the pop seen since July 1 over there may be echoed here shortly. But it will be for a completely different reason. People will finally recognise all the hard work that's been done over here preparing for launch and will jump in for a piece of the action. Stopping at $1, rocketman? I don't think so!