MGX Chart/Technical Analysis, page-276

A lot of talk on technicals, and some projections on cash, but including investments and noting the wet season costs are much higher (99 versus 70 guidance full year) one could get to $500m cash, cash equivalents including investments (FEX 20m + 25c and 30c options ITM with 32.5c close) making the EV around zero for a 3 year mine that could produce $200m-$250m p.a. NPAT (lets assume iron ore price higher of $100-120 band plus 5-10% for 65.2 FE, but I think it will pick up on global growth 2025 forward, and I'm bullish on China getting more support into the property sector). H1 NPAT just under $140m so not wild to expect H2 $100m depending on the current sell off in iron ore - expect support around $100 and China potential additional support? +42m cash in last quarter!!
OK with that sort of money you would either buy back your shares and privatize the cash cow or look for acquisitions (the market loves to discount the unknown). I don't think they will privatize and certainly don't think they will lose $500m on buying a new mine so certainly the value is here including future cashflows even conservatively > +$500m, when market cap now just $500m. I have owned MGX a few times and sold coming into the mine redevelopment period prior to 2022 but bought back very recently at 44c, 43.5c and 42.5c. Technicals aside value is value and getting something for near nothing is certainly appealing to a value investor like myself.
For full transparency I own FEX too.
As always don't take my back of envelope numbers as anything but that (not advice to buy/sell or hold) including my opinions as mine and certainly do your own research.

I welcome any comments especially those keen analysts who could justify the current price!