mhm america figures, page-91

hi hotchoc - $1.24 is support below, this low volume down move in the larger upmove is unlikely to break it so wait for the bounce and buy about here - my2c. Even St players would be happy with the 1.27 - 1.50 spread I would think which seems a no-brainer for another test now.

Longer term? its a valuation exercise. For variety- heres another angle based on what the market has thought of us. The market says our one plant in Geelong at 60,000T where we earn 60% of the profits at this stage of development is worth a 130 million MC min (contracts signed,plant all but finished,pre-full production).

so the market thinks 36000T of exposure is worth $1 prior to quarterlies showing it on the bottom line. ( as its contract based work with fixed margins and tonnage)

The new plant in USA is going to be over 200,000T and cost $20mill where we keep 95% of the profit - . So the market is likely to value that plant at 4x the Geelong plant - $130x4 = 520mill MC once we have the same contracts sorted.

But we have to find $20mill to build it right? Even if we diluted for the whole 20mill and raise it at $1 then go convert Geelong plant into a backgammon hall with our existing 10mill then thats only another 20mill shares. 520mill MC with 150mill shares = $3.46 SP - sounds crazy but we just don't have that many shares on the register so we have to re-rerate as our company will be over 3 times the size.

Of course I doubt it will be as bad as that of course :-)