Interesting summary note:
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So far, silver’s strong physical market conditions have done little to support
its price. Although the average rose by 7% y/y in 2023, the price moved
sideways in general over the year. It has also been arguably disappointing
that silver has failed to outperform gold during the recent rallies in the latter
metal through to all-time highs. After all silver has often been seen as a high
beta version of gold. Yet as the yellow metal rallied by over 20% from its
October trough through to end-March, the gold:silver ratio in fact inched up
and was trading at a historically high level around 90:1.
In our view, the key challenge silver has been facing are still high aboveground inventories. As the data in the last focus box of Chapter 3 shows,
stocks held in London and exchange-registered vaults amounted to nearly
15 months of global supply at end-2023 and there are bullion inventories also
held elsewhere. This has prevented a physical squeeze from emerging in the
market, in spite of the robust supply-demand conditions discussed above.
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This supports the findings from previously posted research paper on supply/demand imbalances on Ag (industrial) having minimal correlation to price (-0.12) , with the speculated cause from WSS (2024) being the significant above ground LME inventories. Looks like the hype "leak" was incorrect on the industrial figure being double the estimate.
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Interesting summary...
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