When it comes to trading decisions, I would choose neither...

When it comes to trading decisions, I would choose neither analysts nor journalists.

Despite their credibility and accountability issues, I kind of feel sorry for analysts. Many analysts are very bright, and no doubt they have good knowledge. But even with their superior knowledge, and the sophisticated (but practically useless) DCF methodologies, the fact is no human can accurately predict the future. Even insiders such as CEOs often get it wrong. So analysts are given this impossible task of crystal ball gazing, and they get blamed when they are wrong. What do you expect? Analysts are not gods. If they can predict the future do you think they would need to work at all? Modelling is insanely boring you know (except the fashion one).

As for journalists, most of their contents are also useless. But I don't mind MW. He does make mistakes, but he's different. He speaks what analysts know but do not tell in a cheap report.

Seriously, MW is just a messenger. A journalist may be able to talk up or down a price temporarily, but there is no way he can influence the direction of a trend. In hindsight we know MQG's downtrend started as early as last May. For price to continue falling over such a prolonged period, it has to be due to deteriorating fundamentals. What were analysts saying in their cheap reports last year?

As a trading tool, price always wins. Sure price is noisy, it may undershoot or overshoot, but in terms of guessing the big direction, it's far more time efficient and effective compared to valuation models.