"Ok so why does the SP get murdered every day I don’t...

"Ok so why does the SP get murdered every day I don’t understand."


Here's my take...

A. The whole sector has entered a downtrend, as expectations outgrew reality

- this is still a new industry for the USA and states are opening up bit by bit each with their own rules, and the TAM (total addressable market) is not yet fully understood. It probably won't be known until 2025/26 when most states have opened up.
(The path to profitability was never going to be easy - PointsBet losses are strategic in nature and absolutely nothing compared to the other players and Pointsbet management have been in their own words "aggressively disciplined" with cash burn - WynnBet actually said they would stop marketing spend because their losses were unsustainable)


B. Pertaining to PointsBet directly, if my memory is correct, it had at one stage the largest amount of retail holders on the ASX. I believe Negative Sentiment and Traders then Shorters have affected the share price and scared retail into selling, since Arizona (no fault of PBH) and then the misrepresented 4C (thanks to AFR Article). This sentiment shift relates to marketshare revision down and profitability nervousness around an unknown growing TAM. (I actually did the calcs and found Pointsbet actually had 11.17% improvement in promo costs over PCP in USA, compared with a 4.33% improvement for the AUS business, which got lost in all the details around marketshare which is a loaded metric - rant for another day)

When the price started drifting much lower, I believe it caught the interest of those looking for voting rights, by holding the price down and accumulating where they can, which is where HG Vora has stepped in since (it first purchased in May and went heavy and nonstop since the $400M placement at the end of July, but the first sub notice was 1st Oct). If you look at the change notices you'll see where the levels they have accumulated at and continue to be accumulated at (the highest price it has accumulated at is $13.4908 in June). Penns notice was just an option conversion, rather than a strategic investment - their strategy revolves around Barstool Sports and Dave Portnoy's massive online audience.
In my opinon, the market is deeply deeply mispricing Pointsbet for so many reasons. The SP has become completely detached from the absolute strength of the underlying businesses. I intend to do a bull thesis at some stage.


USA is currently a battleground because the reward is huge, and PointsBet is well regarded and are importantly building credibility and brand awareness. There are players from all across Europe looking to enter the USA market, as well as massive Crypto players crypto.com and FTX, let alone Fanatics, Disney, Fox and Hard Rock and of course BlueBet (Not Gonna Happen). Competition is fierce. There are already players who are giving up - 888Sports is shutting down in New Jersey, only to then phoenix from the ashes and start from scratch as Sports Illustrated sportsbook, where they hope they may have more brand recognition.

Sentiment, Price, Value, Newsflow.
These are the things to always be aware of and they can individually be either positive, negative or neutral/fair.

I see PointsBet right now as:

	Sentiment	SharePrice	Value	NewsFlow
1	Negative/Neutral	Negative (weak)	Massively Positive	Neutral/Positive