Great investors celebrate and relish different points of view. Arguing about a company’s outlook helps sharpen the investment thesis, whether it is a bull or bear opinion. I have stood up for you on these forums because I think the debate would be poorer without hearing a reasoned argument for the seller. It is a foolish investor who does not want to listen respectfully to the other point of view . The better investors tend to focus their arguments and disagreements on the company fundamentals and avoid ad hominem attacks. You will notice I don’t make them.
I would suggest it might be misleading to describe me as the cheerleader of the bulls on this forum, and as someone who enjoys tenuous connections? I am renowned as being a cynical about any news unless it is fact based, especially if I own a position. I apply the harshest examination to the stocks I own.
I made one post on this particular thread (this is my second) regarding the difference between Ignite and Inspire. That distinction is factual and may be helpful . I added an educated opinion about LVT’s skill set within the MSFT ecosystem. It is an opinion based on several observations. I would welcome opinions that differ so that we can compare observations and debate .
I did NOT draw any tenuous connections with Coles or triangles, symmetrical or asymmetrical . I am good friends with one of the greatest technical investors of our time but I know my limitations, I have never been able to make money by peering at charts.
As to being a cheerleader, quite the reverse, we acquired a starter position when the sector was deeply out of favor but advised caution until we saw confirmation of their ability to control cost and manage the rate of cash burn . We saw that confirmation and were allowed to add at value when folks were fretting about a new CFO, because, factually, we confirmed Matt’s new role.
Several times, We have pointed out what we believe are over optimistic forecasts.....hardly the behavior of a “cheerleader “. Sometimes we have been too cynical and admitted our mistake. I genuinely thought LVT had set too high a goal for cost cutting in December and would not make that goal. I shared that opinion and I was wrong. We had underestimated the one offf set-up costs associated with N3 and LVT actually exceeded their cost cutting goals. Contrary to a cheerleader, I had been unduly negative, because I missed something......I come here to be challenged so I miss less.
I have pointed out that professional consensus for ASR this quarter is less than some of the numbers being bandied about here but I have also admitted that this is a hard one to forecast due to the Wizdom acquisition. I have carefully observed that ASR growth is correlated to expenditure because growth is tied to cost of acquisition. Every new dollar in ASR requires dollars spent in marketing and sales and customer installation. If you freeze expenditure to meet cash targets, then growth rate will stabilize UNLESS you can reduce cost of acquisition. Base case increase in ASR is around 4-5 m. Except if they reduce COA. THE MOST IMPORTANT METRIC THIS QUARTER IS COST OF ACQUISITION.
Finally I have never joined the cheer club advocating that LVT will not have another capital raise and have disagreed with those who claim management are saying this. We want this to be a large company, funding aggressive growth. We just happen to think the next raise will be closer to $1 than 45 cents because the company has control of cash burn and is growing like a weed.
But I will wait to see the numbers.....and as always, make a fact supported opinion.
I
LVT Price at posting:
49.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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