There has been a few crosses this week so it is likely someone...

There has been a few crosses this week so it is likely someone is taking a position. 6m shares today added to the previous days - but still under 5% given that would require 45mil shares or so.

These are the reference points i can see when looking at any possible corporate activity - which I still see as doubtful.

Lifetime Value (LTV) - As per 2Q21 = $403m / ~45cps

My suggestion is that management won't accept even this figure as it doesn't include any upside for what they see / say is in the pipeline. Karl mentioned that this figure is conservative and managements strategy is to continue to chase market share and grow LTV. During the conference call (refer around the last 1:30) Karl said something along the lines of "I believe we will get to $1b fairly quickly..in a responsible way that doesn't require us to raise specific funds to do that". There are lots of moving parts in the LTV figure and they are using what I feel is an inappropriate constant currency date, however the calc

Further to that they have shown great confidence in this pipeline, firstly by what they have been saying - they are front runners for two new contract wins that would be their largest to date, huge growth in pipeline and inbound activity etc and more importantly by their actions - they have increased OPEX on the back of the confidence they have in the pipeline. Given this can't be reflected in the 'conservative' LTV figure based on 31 Dec ARR I would say even achieving $403m wouldn't be sufficient for them.

I think 25x is a bit ambitious and reserved for those that are growing very rapidly. Even if you apply 10x the most inflated ARR figure of $64.7m (constant currency figure linked to March 31 FX) you get $647m / ~72cps. Same rationale could apply however given the ARR may be cum a few big wins and most importantly conversion of what's in the pipeline. If management have some visibility (enough to justify ramping expenses in the very quarter they said they would be CF+) then Ill take that as confidence in the pipeline and therefore again an ARR figure that isn't reflective of their expectations.

Again management stated that they are chasing market share and looking to grow LTV to $1b fairly quickly in a responsible manner without the need to raise specific funds. Therefore if they can get there without needing to raise then they would have no motivation for selling in the absence of achieving what they think the business is worth. Also its not like this is a 15 year old company, its still relatively young and one would thing they have a long way to go.

Either of the outcomes above I feel is still not a reflect of what the company could be worth, but that aside I just don't see either the buyer paying a high enough price for management or management accepting a low enough offer.