Mid-term predictons

So to get away from some of the hyperventilation about when the suspension will be lifted and where the SP will open...

I've been trying to establish some sort of mental picture about how the rollout and financing may occur and what that might mean for my position and how I should manage it. Some of you who enjoy messing about with spreadsheets might like to join me in some harmless speculation about the mid-term future for ESI - lets say the end of CY 2020 or equivalently FY 2020-21.

I imagine we might be joined in this by the guys at Arrowhead in the next few weeks or months.

These are all very rough numbers, and lets not make it some sort of closest-to-the-pin competition... just a friendly exchange of ideas among fellow travelers. I've tried to be conservative - things can and will unfold less than optimally at times.


My best guess is that in 2020 NLC will mine around 40 MTpa of lignite.

About 8 MTpa of this will pass through about 24 commercial scale (0.75 MTps IP / 0.34 MTps OP) Coldry modules. A small amount will go through the CDP.

About 0.8 MTpa of the Coldry capacity will be used for Matmor steel production, the rest in Power Stations, mostly as shandies.

The share register in pre-consolidation terms will run to 6 billion shares.

EPS from Coldry and Matmor royalties will be around 1.5 CPS.

I have not considered Victorian plant starter pellets from BM, revenues from plant operations/ownership other than the CDP, or revenues from Poland and other countries.

I think the shape price under such a scenario might be $0.280 at the end of 2020.

What do you think?