Ok. Maybe redundant is too strong a word, maybe it's 'increasing...

Ok. Maybe redundant is too strong a word, maybe it's 'increasing less relevant'.

Maybe we are talking semantics, idk.

With the majority of opec countries being fundamentally one trick oil ponies, their budgets are being slaughtered by low oil prices, in the same way us oil is getting slammed.

Their advantage over us companies is their ability to control monetary policy.

Unconventional oil plays have continued to achieve higher yield and lower cost, through technology innovation.

While opec in combination with Russia has moved the market, both ways, realistically only 2-3 opec players and Russia could do the same without the rest of opec.

While the market is in the short-term bumping all over the show based on every rumour or hope, over the long-term opec countries must bring thier budgets into balance. For some the balanceing need is more urgent or just as urgent as many unconventional plays.

For some opec countries, such as Venezuela I think that's around $80-100 a barrel.


At that price there (IMHO) is only increasing opportunity for unconventional plays to grab a market share.

So yeah, opec as a whole or as a solo cartel, I don't think has the goods.

I'm in agreement that a broader cartel, say Iran iraq saud and rus is a different kettle of fish.