Slow strangulation
A quick sitrep update on the evolving Red Sea crisis.
Quick take:
AnsarAllah has attacked “Israeli-linked” ships in the Red Sea again.
The Galaxy Leader remains under AnsarAllah control off the coast of Yemen.
As a consequence of renewed attacks on ships, many cargo carriers are hiring private on board security, and have revisited their decision to begin transiting the Red Sea again. Prof Mercogliano’s latest Youtube update (link below) shows several ships approaching Bab el Mandeb turning around at the entrance and beginning movement away from the chokepoint.
New development: Several shipping firms have expressly stated they will not accept cargo to or from an Israel port “indefinitely”, while others are silently boycotting Israeli cargo and declining to deliver/accept from any Israeli port of call. Given that Israel is highly dependent upon imports, this is a slow strangulation of the Israeli economy, as a direct result of the AnsarAllah actions.
Prof Sal Mercogliano @mercoglianos on Twitter/X is a good source for evolving updates on the global shipping situation. Reuters has published a list of ships that are either turning around and declining to attempt to transit the Red Sea - the majority of which are either Israeli owned, or have Israeli links, such as an Israeli port of call, after an unsuccessful attack on the Maersk “Hangzhou” today. Others have announced in the past few days that they will decline to accept cargo to or from Israel “for the foreseeable future”.
Taiwanese owned Evergreen lines, Hong Kong based OOCL, Japanese owned OOSK expressly stated that they are not accepting any cargo to or from Israel “indefinitely”. Other shipping companies are also “informally” declining to accept cargo from any Israeli port of call (to or from).
Danish based Maersk, German based Hapag-Lloyd and London based MSC, all with Israeli links, have halted all ship transit through the Red Sea after AnsarAllah attacked a Maersk ship with ballistic missiles, which were intercepted by the US Navy. A Hapag-Lloyd vessel sustained a hit from a drone, and MSC had previously experienced an attack by two ballistic missiles.
A timeline of some of the attacks on ships in December in the Red Sea, as provided by John Konrad, (@johnkonrad on X/Twitter) who also publishes the industry linked gCaptain newsletter.
(the Galaxy Leader was boarded and commandeered in November, so it is not on this list, and I am guessing that because Rio Brilliante’s Chem Pluto was hit in the Indian Sea on December 23rd, it is not included in his timeline because the attack did not take place in the Red Sea or at Bab el Mandeb).
BREAKING: MAERSK SHIP HIT BY ANTI-SHIP MISSILE THEN SWARMED BY ARMED BOATS (Source: JohnKonrad @ X)
TIMELINE:
Dec 14th: Maersk Gibraltar targeted by a missile.
Dec 15th: Maersk reroutes all ships around Africa
Dec 16th: Other large container ship owners reroute
Dec 26th: Maersk announces return to Red Sea
Dec 27th: Hapag-Lloyd & MSC say it's still too dangerous
Dec 29th: Maersk admits it's dangerous and pays crew double wages while transiting the Red Sea.
Dec 30th: Houthis shoot 3 missiles at Maersk Hangzhou. USS Gravely shoots down 2. One missile hits Maersk Hangzhou. Maersk ship continues sailing.
Dec 31: 4 armed Houthi boats swarm the Hangzhou, which had continued sailing after sustaining the missile hit on Dec 30th. Maersk private security team opens fire on boat swarm. US Navy helicopters respond and sink 3 boats, killing the AnsarAllah attack boat crew.
It remains to be seen what AnsarAllah’s response will be to the USN more aggressive response in defense of maritime ships under attack. While the US military has been successful in thwarting the majority of these attacks, intercepting missiles and sinking AnsarAllah boats, winning some of the battles, AnsarAllah has been winning the war, by compelling all major shipping firms, representing billions of dollars in commerce, to change their posture, - and - this is key - begin to isolate and boycott Israel expressly, which is what AnsarAllah has sought from the beginning.
The bottle neck at Bab el Mandeb is in addition to the workarounds/constraints major shipping companies are having to deal with because of low water levels in the Panama Canal. The Maritime Executive notes that the normal volume of traffic through the Panama Canal is 36 ships per day; this has been reduced to 25 since November; and will be further reduced to 18 in February of 2024. That is two major shipping transit points that have become serious bottlenecks/choke points, impacting all shipping, including retrieval of empty containers, worldwide.
Panama Canal low water causes slow down
Updated list shipping firms reactions to AnsarAllah attacks
Prof Mercogliano update on his Youtube channel:
