Middle East War Expands, page-1490

Palestine SitRep: Lebanese Resistance Causes Enemy Losses - Is Ready To Fight Off Attacks

At Naked Capitalism Yves Smith is taking another recommendable look at the situation in and around Palestine:

Israel Shifts to Targeted Escalation, With Justification for Entry into Lebanon One Likely Aim

After the assassination of Saleh al-Arouri, the deputy head of Hamas’ political wing, in Beirut the situation at the border will probably escalate:

Alastair Crooke reported that Israel residents of in the north who had evacuated or otherwise fled demanded that they not be able to see Lebanese forces from the border. They told by the government that they would be able to return by the end of January, which seems a tall order (I did find corroboration in a print source but due to the state of search, cannot find it again). Given that Lebanon would never agreed to effectively cede territory to improve the mental health of these nearby Israeli neighbors, that commitment would imply an invasion, which is how Crooke read it.

Scott Ritter appears to have seen similar demands, but depicted them as mere threat display, that Israel would not dare attempt an incursion because it was pretty sure to lose. As Ritter had early described, Israel lost its last two war games against Hamas and Hezbollah, even with the US joining the war. Ritter has also described how much better Hezbollah has gotten since 2006, when it beat Israel, while Israel’s forces, per Ritter, are third rate. And Hezbollah has a tunnel network that makes Hamas’ look like a poor cousin.
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Aside from the successful Beirut attack amounting to a real blow and a morale booster for Israel, it also seems to be setting up the spin that a widening of the war in Lebanon would be the result of Hezbollah escalation, as opposed to as Israel initiative (hoping for a response to provocation as cover). For example, see the DW headline: Hezbollah’s revenge for Beirut killing: Will it lead to war?

One wonders why Israel seems to be committing itself to an invasion of Lebanon. Is this strictly domestically driven, that it is politically unacceptable for Israel to have abandoned border towns? That Israel is worried about waning US support, witness the pressure to dial down (at least optically) Israel’s campaign in Gaza? Aljazeera articulates one widespread view, that Netanyahu is strongly motivated to keep the war at a high pitch, although he probably has some rabid allies:
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Yes, Netanyahoo has some reasons to keep the war running by escalating it. But it is probably not because he fears an investigation into how it came to the war, as Aljazeerah implies. Such investigations can be fudged. But Netanyahoo has a higher (to him) personal interest.

A piece published two days ago by the Washington Postcatches the essence of his motivation:

Cont. reading: Palestine SitRep: Lebanese Resistance Causes Enemy Losses - Is Ready To Fight Off Attacks