The cover of the latest print edition of Foreign Affairs magazine (March/April, 2024) has the following wording: “Does Peace Have a Chance? Israel, Gaza, and the Fight for a New Middle East.” The magazine contains a feature section of four articles on this topic. The first article claims that the only viable road to peace in the area is a two-state solution, but with the Palestinian state having only limited rights; the second article claims that the only solution is a one-state setup, but with enforced complete civil rights for everyone; the third article claims that the only solution is for the regional countries to get together and solve the problem; and the fourth article claims that Israel is on the road to self-destruction, but that “If the past is precedent, the country is not entirely hopeless.” After reading the four articles, it is clear that “hopeless” is a more accurate description.
There are some important factors that the featured writings omit, however, and one such is the economic angle. It has been widely reported that there are large oil and gas deposits offshore from Gaza, that the proposed Ben Gurion Canal would pass through Gaza, and that the transport corridor from Saudi Arabia would also pass through Gaza. In addition, it is reported that the coast of Gaza is prime real estate development territory. All these factors indicate that religion and providing a homeland for Jews may not be the only motives for conflict in the Holy Land.
The Eastern Mediterranean contains numerous deposits of fossil fuels, but has only been developed in limited amounts due to disagreements over jurisdiction and ownership, and the generally tenuous security situation. The Ben Gurion Canal proposed route is from the Port of Eilat on the Red Sea north across Israeli territory to the Mediterranean Sea, which route would be a competitor to the Suez Canal. It would be a boon to the Israeli economy and provide a sea route under the control of Israel rather than Egypt. This development would further upset the political situation in the area, as Egypt relies heavily on tolls from the Suez Canal for its government budget. Egypt is already in a difficult situation due to tension over the newly built high dam on the Nile river in Ethiopia, as well as the dismal showing by the Egyptian economy. Both Egypt and Ethiopia joined the BRICS this year, making it a possible way for China and Russia to help sort out the problems and provide tangible assistance. Saudi Arabia was also scheduled to join BRICS, but the Gaza War and military action in the Red Sea have upset the apple cart. The original fighting in Gaza was contained until the Houthi forces in Yemen launched their own campaign against the Israeli actions. The Yemen government has been effective in preventing normal Israeli, US and UK shipping from using the Red Sea route despite the US-led Operation Prosperity Guardian, which has been a failure so far. Yemen just announced possession of a new “hypersonic” missile and launched an unspecified missile at the Port of Eilat. The unspecified missile reportedly made it all the way to the port despite US, UK and Israeli air defense systems along the path.
The US has been supporting a transport corridor linking India, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Israel with the EU. It would entail a land bridge using trucks and rails to ferry goods between ports in the UAE and Israel. This would allow goods from container ships to travel between India and the EU without going through the Red Sea thus avoiding interference from Yemen. The proposal was actually broached before the Gaza War as an alternative to the Chinese efforts to build the new silk roads. However, the Gaza War has given the project another and more immediate justification. This plan will not sit well with Egypt, however, as it would be another way to bypass the Suez Canal. If peace returns to the Red Sea and environs, it is difficult to see how a route requiring ship-to-land-to-ship inefficiencies would be very competitive with a ship-only route. It would benefit the countries involved, however, and is a factor in the US push to normalize relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia.
Another factor only lightly touched upon by the authors is the impact on US hegemony and the international rules-based order. The first two articles place heavy emphasis on the need for actions by the US in order to achieve results, but they do not address the difficulties that the Gaza conflict are creating for US diplomacy throughout the world. The countries of the so-called Global South are overwhelmingly against the actions of Israel in Gaza. This is shown by the voting patterns in the United Nations, by the action at the International Court of Justice (IC), by statements of many foreign officials, and by extensive popular demonstrations. The support for Israel by the US makes the US complicit and gravely undercuts the US soft-power influence as well as diplomatic activities. The fall-out has rendered the Abraham Accords fairly meaningless and obstructed the attempt to normalize relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia. It makes it harder for the US to counteract the BRICS enlargement, the new silk roads from China, and the Russian influence in OPEC on the price of oil and gas.
The Israel/Palestine issue can be seen in the US domestic political infighting: The Israel Lobby has historically supported the government of Israel in public, and both political parties in the US have been continuous Israeli backers. Now, however, while the Republicans often continue to support the Israeli Prime Minister, the Democrats have shifted to more outright support of the Defense Minister and the Israeli opposition. The Biden Administration is basically calling for a regime change in Israel. It is not clear that this would result in an improvement in the diplomatic scene, however, since the Israeli public and main parties all seem to support the current actions in Gaza. It appears that there is little understanding in the US that support for Israel at this point in time is undercutting support for the American Empire. The Deep State should have figured this out, and understood that, from a strictly realistic foreign policy viewpoint, Israel is only one country out of nearly 200 in the world, and that it should not be allowed to wag the dog. The politicians and the mass media do not want to understand this fact of life. No doubt the billionaires behind the curtain are faced with some serious decisions.
The articles in Foreign Affairs make little mention of Russia, yet Russia is an important actor in the Middle East (West Asia). Russia is widely thought to be acting to hold back the outbreak of a wider war in the area by limiting the response by Syria to Israeli provocations and by working to keep the ‘Axis of Resistance’ from using its full power. Russia could turn over very sophisticated air defense systems to Syria which would enable the latter to more effectively shoot down Israeli warplanes, but this is not happening. Instead, Israel continues to attack Syrian territory, kill members of the Resistance, and get away with it. There are also reportedly over one million ethnic Russians living in Israel due to emigration from the Soviet Union. According to Wikipedia, Russian speakers in Israel numbered around 1.3 million in 2022, amounting to 15% of the population. Russian attitude toward Israel has been changing as a result of both the Ukraine War and the Gaza War. Israel has continued its support of Ukraine despite Russian objections and Israeli officials denounced Russia for holding a meeting with Hamas in Moscow. Israel requires full-scale support from the US for the Gaza War and, therefore, is under pressure to side with the US in Ukraine. As a result, Russia is more and more siding with the Palestinians and the Resistance, but in less obvious ways.
***
The cover of Foreign Affairs magazine asks the question: “Does Peace Have a Chance?” Many would say that the answer is: “A very small one.” Part of the reason for the “almost hopeless” feeling is that the powers behind the curtain have crafted a Narrative that diverges considerably from the objective facts of world affairs. In fact, they do not even read their own data sources, such as the CIA WorldFactbook. The March/April 2024 issue of Foreign Affairs should have added a number of articles to better inform their readership about the issues in the Middle East beyond the four in the feature section.
One such article should cover the statistics of the Gaza War and the situation in general. A lot of references to the October 7 attack by Hamas list a total number of deaths, but fail to distinguish between military and civilian. The stories also do not make the numbers clear between Israeli and Palestinian deaths, nor between those killed by Hamas and those killed by the Israeli Defense Forces. The same problem exists for those killed since October 7 on both sides. What evidence is available to support any of the numbers? How do these numbers compare with the annual totals of those killed in other attacks or shootings, not part of the current Gaza War? What is the situation with hostages and prisoners, arrests, releases, and re-arrests?
Another article should review the approaches taken by the Palestinian side and the different Palestinian factions. A long-term settlement should look at the goals, strengths, weaknesses, and strategies of both Israel and the Palestinians. Some more history of the various factions on both sides and the possibilities of some fruitful negotiations. Some items of such material are included in the existing four articles, but a more inclusive and well-organized information set is needed. After covering Israel/Palestine, the article should go on to deal with the Axis of Resistance information. How do the groups in Syria, Iraq, Yemen, and Iran go about their business? What is their diplomatic and military strength and what is their strategy? The Resistance in Yemen has made the US and UK look like the so-called ‘paper tigers’ in the Red Sea, and seems ready to expand its zone of operation. What about potential future additions to the Axis? There are reports that Egypt is about to boil over due to a poor economic situation and popular disgust with the way the government has handled the Gaza situation. Is the Resistance making secret inroads with the millions of Palestinians in Jordan or with factions in other Middle East countries?
A third article should cover the issue of nuclear weapons. The official narrative for years has gone on and on about the possible Iranian bomb and the international inspections and the diplomatic agreements to prevent such an outcome. There has been some discussion about the presumed Israeli nuclear weapons, but very little about international inspections in Israel, or control over such weapons. Much less has been said about potential nuclear weapons in other Middle East nations. It would seem wiser to have nuclear weapons under the control of major nations with cool, calm, and collected leadership. It would also seem wiser to check on the control of such weapons in countries that have articles about them entitled “Self Destruction” or that are on the “regime change list” of the US.
A fourth article should cover the impact of the Israeli/Palestinian conflict on the exercise of US foreign policy. As noted above, the US support for Israel in the Gaza War has been very detrimental to the exercise of US efforts in the Global South. While the West generally supports Israel (although this support may be fading), the South supports Palestine. This fact greatly complicates US attempts to keep the South within the framework of the international rules-based order. Foreign countries also look at the strange behavior in the US, where the Republican-led House of Representatives intends to invite the Israeli Prime Minister to address the chamber, while the Democratic Administration calls for new elections in Israel to oust the same Prime Minister. It does not look like the Empire has its act together.
A fifth additional article should cover the economic issues mentioned above, in light of the nations surrounding Israel/Palestine. Some data on the alleged transfer of oil from Iraq and possibly Syria through various methods to Israel, and more on the claimed real estate development possibilities. The economic impact of the war on Israeli tourism and new investment, as well as the overall decline in the GDP need coverage. How serious is the blockage of shipping to Israel through the Red Sea, and what other plans does the Axis of Resistance have up its sleeve? Mention has been made that up to a half-million Israelis have left the country for safer locations—what are the actual numbers for people coming in and people going out?
Finally, the March/April issue contains zero articles about the Ukraine War, despite the conflict reaching a climax and the European politicians being in a state of panic. One thought is that word went out to adjust the Narrative to exclude the Ukraine action in the hope that it could stalemate and be quietly put to bed and forgotten about before the elections. However, no such luck.
***
These observations concerning the articles in Foreign Affairs are indicative of the wide chasm between what the magazine publishes and what is needed for an objective view of US foreign policy. A charitable view of the situation would observe that the wheels appear to have been coming off the American Empire since the turn of the century. It is past time for the Deep State (whatever that is) to begin to put some objectivity into the Narrative and a higher level of smarts into US diplomacy and military actions. It looks very much like the US has ended up supporting losers in both Ukraine and Israel/Palestine, and will end up regretting its choices.
