Iran Keeps World on Pins and Needles
The Middle East is again in a cycle of heating up. Oddly, it’s during the Olympics that once more a major war threatens to ignite. Some may recall it was during the 8/8/8 Beijing Summer Olympics that Russia invaded Georgia, and it was during the Beijing Winter Olympics of February 2022 that the SMO kicked off.
Now we’re in the midst of the Paris Olympics and Iran is threatening an “unprecedented” response to the killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran on July 31st. In anticipation, the U.S. has begun bringing major reinforcements to the region, which includes F-22s, B-2 Spirit stealth bomber, an armada featuring the USS Roosevelt Carrier Group, as well as amphibious landing ships with 4000 U.S. Marines on board:
To give an idea of the type of air defense assets deployed last time Iran struck, here’s an excerpt from Iranian sources:
In fact, during April’s large strikes, the U.S. stated that it would be “very difficult to replicate” their alleged “success” in stopping Iranian missiles:
https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/very-hard-to-replicate-interception-success-against-2nd-stri"We think it will be very hard to replicate the huge success we had on Saturday with defeating the attack if Iran launches hundreds of missiles and drones again — and the Israelis know it," another US official said.
One of the reasons is a huge amount of missiles were expended in trying to shoot down the hundreds of Iranian drones and ballistic missiles. Since multiple air defense missiles are usually required to shoot down a single target, it will always be the case that U.S. and co. will have to shoot far more missiles, which are already themselves far more expensive.
The entire Defense industry has been ringing alarm bells for months that the U.S. forces in the region are nearing a crisis point when it comes to their ability to replenish AD assets. In a war against China, they know they would be in deep trouble:
Now some reports claim Iran is still holding off and waiting to strike at a time of its choosing:
Iran and Hezbollah are preparing to attack Israel on the holy day of Tisha B'Av - Sky News Arabia
▪️Western intelligence sources have told Sky News Arabia that Iran is planning an attack on Israel on Tisha B'Av (August 12-13) in response to the killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyya.
▪️The attack will be coordinated with Hezbollah. Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has announced his intention to avenge Haniya's death.
▪️The choice of date for the attack is related to the symbolic meaning of the day of Tisha B'Av, when Jews mourn the destruction of the First and Second Temples. This could put psychological pressure on the Israelis and restore the morale of pro-Iranian groups.
Though another report claims that Iran may attack as early as this coming Monday:
BREAKING: Reports now indicate Iran will attack Israel as early as Monday.. Three U.S. and Israeli officials have indicated that Iran may launch an attack on Israel as soon as Monday. This anticipated action follows vows of retaliation from Iranian and Hezbollah leaders in response to the recent assassinations of Hezbollah's top military commander, Fuad Shukr, and Hamas political leader, Ismail Haniyeh.
One interesting aspect to the proceedings dovetails with a question someone asked recently in the mailbag surrounding what assistance Russia may be providing to the Middle Eastern resistance axis.
First, there’s one uncorroborated report about Iran being given one of Russia’s most powerful electronic warfare tools, the Murmansk complex:
Photo for illustrative purposes only.Iran, apparently, has received Russian ultra-long-range electronic warfare systems Murmansk-BN.
Previously, these complexes were deployed in the Northern Fleet and in Crimea (the 475th Electronic Warfare Center was responsible for its use there).
Their distinctive feature is a suppression range of up to 5 thousand kilometers. The Murmansk-BN complex is located on seven trucks. Its antennas are mounted on four telescopic supports up to 32 meters high.
What potentially supports this are new reports that Russian Il-96 and Il-76 transport flights have allegedly been streaming into Tehran:
'Gelix Airlines' IL-76 cargo flight (reg. RA-76360) Moscow (VKO)
=> Tehran (IKA)
This charter company is known for weapons transfers, not sure what this flight is about now but it's interesting, first time see in Iran.
On top of that, two eye-opening articles revealed that Russia was reportedly on the verge of large weapons deliveries to the Houthis but were talked back off the ledge by the U.S. in a last minute compromise of some sort:
Russia was preparing to deliver missiles and other military equipment to the Houthi rebels in Yemen late last month but pulled back at the last minute amid a flurry of behind-the-scenes efforts by the United States and Saudi Arabia to stop it, CNN reports.
As well as new reports that Russian GRU intelligence officers have been behind the string of successful Houthi hits on Red Sea vessels:
Thus, as anyone can see, Russia has already been quite active in asymmetrically opposing American imperialism, as I had mentioned many times due to questions on how Russia plans to ‘respond’ to the U.S. using Ukraine as a proxy to hurt Russian interests.
Now the whole world is on pins and needles awaiting what comes next. Lindsay Graham has entered a resolution into Congress to authorize full scale war against Iran:
While the famously accurate Pizza bellwether has sounded around the Pentagon, indicating major late night planning round tables and war preparations:
Biden reportedly had a “tough talk” with Netanyahu where he told him that the U.S. will support him this time, but if he escalates again he won’t be able to count on U.S. support—which is quite open to interpretation.
At this point it’s clear, as we’ve written many times here before, that Netanyahu needs perpetual escalation in order to save his failing regime. Only by keeping people in perpetual fear and distress can he keep them from mustering the wherewithal and concensus to overthrow him. Furthermore, Israel seems to fear taking on Hezbollah with Iran’s backing and would love to have U.S. tie Iran down in a war, or eliminate it outright, first, prior to taking the risky gambit of slugging it out with Hezbollah.
The last thing the Biden administration likely wants is a large scale war on the eve of the presidential elections, which will redound poorly on Kamala’s campaign. Thus, reports of the administration’s exasperation with Israel are probably true. Either way it doesn’t matter because if Trump was in office, you can bet he would declare full scale war against Iran on Israel’s behalf, so in this case we can quite unironically say that the Biden administration is preferable for the sake of peace.
