Midweek Lotto

I figure we can do with some cheering up... the share price has been bucking the general trend in the market... but who cares when your business is steamrolling ahead.

In the current edition, I'm releasing the midweek lotto sales for midweek cheers. Again, using the simple principle that standard ticket sales can be estimated (with high confidence) by analysing the distribution curve of lotto winners at each division. Note, midweek lotto jackpots are capped at $1m per division 1 winner.



The above graph shows the number of (standard) tickets sold per Monday and Wednesday lotto draw since 1 July 2019. I've added a 10 draw moving average to visualize the general trend and a line of best fit.
What can we see?
(1) Lotto ticket sales have been above 7 million for 26 draws running (13weeks)
(2) The frequency of 10 million + sales per draw is accelerating

We can see the growth trend more clearly when we look at cumulative sales starting at 1/7/19, 1/1/20 and 1/7/20:

(1) The cumulative sales so far for FY21 is tracking at +37% since 1 year ago
(2) The cumulative sales so far for FY21 is tracking at +8% since 6 months ago

In FY20 there were 843.5m ticket sales for Mon/Wed lotto sales. From this, assuming Jumbo is capturing 6.5% (explained in a prior post), Jumbo had TTV (for Mon/Wed lotto) of $18.4m in 1HFY20, $19.9m in 2HFY20 and projected to have TTV of $23.4m in 1HFY21.

The best part of it is that Jumbo has had to invest ZERO dollars to partake in this lotto frenzy, meaning that the extra sales will flow straight to the bottom line