migratory risks huge, page-9

We are talking at least 7 million [deaths], but maybe more -- 10 million, 20 million and the worst case 100 million," he said.
"This is a very real threat," he said.

A bird flu pandemic could erupt next year or the following one or the one after that, say doctors. No one can be sure when. But what is certain is that a world outbreak is inevitable, given that the region has become such a vast reservoir for H5N1.

Not surprisingly, officials are now desperate to control and ultimately eradicate the virus, although conditions in the region are so chaotic such prospects look slim.

Consider the example of China. It has reported far fewer cases of avian flu than have been highlighted by other countries in Southeast Asia. However, it is impossible to be sure about the extent of cases there because 80 percent of the nation's chickens and ducks are reared in small, remote and poorly regulated farms.