Well UBI has just reached a $47 million market cap which is a similar value to the milestone payment that will be coming at the end of 2017.
Hang onto your shares punters, Viburnum funds are having a great time selling this thing down and scooping up your shares.
Have a look at their rationale for investing in UBI:
http://www.viburnumfunds.com.au/fund-reports
March 31 update.
Universal Biosensors (UBI). UBI produced a flurry of news over the quarter including the resignation of Paul Wright as CEO, appointment of a new Non-Executive Director, modifications to the Siemens collaboration agreement and putting the development of their own PT-INR product on hold. This news flow resulted in us having a heightened level of engagement with the company and caused us to reflect on our investment thesis, which we believe remains largely unchanged albeit the timeframes may have altered. The biotechnology sector is inherently complex and things typically take longer than expected but the rewards can be significant given the large global market opportunities. While there are several issues outside of the company’s control (e.g. the FDA review of the POC PT-INR sector due to the Alere recall), UBI has also made some errors within its own control (e.g. development of their own PT-INR device). We believe the LifeScan Quarterly Service Fees (QSFs) underpin the valuation at current prices and that ultimately they will be able to achieve traction in the PT-INR market with Siemens even if the FDA imposes stricter standards (UBI should be able to develop products to meet these standards). The POC PT-INR market is attractive and should support a genuine challenger to Roche (~60% market share). If Siemens can achieve 20% market share over a 5 year timeframe this would result in >$50m of revenue at >50% gross margins to UBI. Needless to say the selection of the next CEO is critical.
I have been getting more at 27 and 27.5 cents.
Find me another biotech at this price with more forecasted (real) revenue on the horizon.
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