While the Nervous Nellies think iron ore is dead, the biggest metals trader in world isA) going long iron ore
B) going long 58% gradeC) going long in 2026 to 2028 when Simandou (the Pilbara killer) will be in full steamD) and willing to put down $400 million prepayment 2 years ahead of first delivery
This is on top of the biggest steel maker in world (BaoWu) taking 75% of the MinRes volumes. Who would know iron ore demand going forward better than Bao.
MinRes just need one big lever to put a lid on the market critics, a $1 billion selldown/monetisation which will give it a safe passage through to ramp up to 35mtpa and more importantly to achieve the desired cost of US$48 full loaded and landed china. If they can do that by June 2025 MinRes will "Explode" . Then they can recover the sold down assets(haul road, pre paid iron ore volume etc) by taking Onslow to 40MTPA by Jun26 and paying down some of the debt that is coming due in June 2027.
MIN $10 Share Price, page-95
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