Hi Big;
I thought this person's post on the weekend was one of the most interesting things i've read in a while
There are two opposing views: 1 Lithium good deposits are scarce (Rio view) 2: Not scarce and cost curve will flatten to marginal cost, (BHP view). I've got no idea which one is correct. But if the Rio view is right, one day Mt Marion and Wodgina will be worth a lot eg $ bn.
Demand will steadily grow, and against a supply curve that is basically near vertical, it means prices will at some stage go up quite quickly when demand catches up to the current over supply stimulated by the US $8000 price.
Keep posting this guy's stuff. It is really interesting.
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Great listen gentlemen! However couldn't agree less on the fact that hard rock lithium deposits are easy to find.
Tell me, which hard rock deposit hasn't been mapped and known about for 50 years +? Greenbushes, Wodgina, KV, Manono, Pilgangoora, Mt marion, Bikita, Mt cattlin, Jia Jika, etc. were all known and discovered long before the lithium boom. Took 100 years of mapping to find these deposits. Half of them were mines long before the lithium boom. The only "discoveries" are maybe some of the Canadian ones and a couple of smallish deposits elsewhere. The first thing geologists did when lithium was booming was open up the Ta, Sn, Be, etc. occurrences database and drill them for lithium (i know this because i stare at the database every night before bed). Well, all the known occurrences are now drilled so the next round of discoveries are going to be very difficult. It will come down to people walking remote areas of the earth and mapping fresh prospects (most geos like to sit behind computers now).
It's either very rural Africa/Canada or undercover in WA discoveries going forward. Highly doubt discoveries will keep up at the same rate but let's see. Also, absolutely nobody will drill off soil anomalies in this price environment.
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