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scrabble1

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30/07/24

15:09

Post #: 74984049
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Originally posted by hazyg ↑

What you say is partially true...but not the full picture. And already established. If we look at the morningstar review back in June it is all pretty clear already... So lets start with the iron ore:

June 19. 2024. Mark Taylor.

No-moat Mineral Resources will cease Yilgarn Hub iron ore shipments by Dec. 31, 2024. The operation is
high-cost and has limited mine life. With significant capital costs to develop new resources, it has been
deemed unviable.
We maintain our AUD 67 fair value and earnings estimates for MinRes. The Yilgarn Hub contributes
negligibly to our estimates, and we had forecast its closure by the end of fiscal 2025, only six months
later than has been decided upon. Yilgarn Hub’s importance has faded as MinRes’ Onslow project has
progressed. The new 60%-owned AUD 3.0 billion operation recently delivered first iron ore and will
ramp up to 35 million metric tons of capacity by June 2025.
In addition to more than doubling equity iron ore output, Onslow is higher grade than existing MinRes
operations, and, at around AUD 45 per metric ton, is expected to have half the unit operating costs.
Onslow has an impressively low capital intensity of AUD 85 per metric ton and potential for further
expansion, perhaps to 70 million metric tons, at even lower capital intensity.
Yilgarn Hub is expected to produce near just 8 million metric tons in fiscal 2024 at close to AUD 110 per
metric ton unit cost. Benchmark 62% spot iron ore currently sits near AUD 165 per metric ton, though
price realization at Yilgarn is lower due to its lower 58% grade.

As for the debt a closer look reveals that:

Group net debt of AUD 3.5 billion is up 90% over the prior six
months, not surprising given hefty Onslow expenditures. We expect net debt/EBITDA to peak at toppy
4.0 levels by the end of fiscal 2024 before a rapid decline to more palatable levels nearer 1.0 by fiscal
2026. This could improve sooner if part sell-down of Onslow’s road access charge achieves Foreign
Investment Review Board approval. Debt levels need to be watched, given that lithium and iron ore
prices can be volatile. The first material principal repayment isn’t due until fiscal 2027, and largely US
bonds have no financial maintenance covenants.

And i believe the Onslow haul road sale has been approved??

Expand

the issue is unless they sell more assets ie the other 51% of the road as an example, they are barely going to make inroads into the significant debt load. The collapse in lithium and IO prices couldn’t have come at a worse time.

They also have pretty high sustaining capex costs too which don’t get factored into the FOB or EBITDA figures. And with little inroads into debt, high interest costs will need to be prioritised over any potential dividends.

MIN Price at posting: $52.03 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
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