I thought you'd all be interested in the sensitivity of MIn RES earnings to the Iron Ore price going up 1.3% on SGX to from 93.55 to 94.65.
Basically it increases earning per tonne by $0.80, and total free cash flow generated over the next 3 years goes from 82% of equity value to 84% of equity value.
I show the two tables below.
MinRes Onslow estimated EBITDA per tonne Aus $ (mining + mining services) 31.6 Date since Total days Rate shipped per day tonnes Total transhipper unloads Total shipped (tonnes million) Rate per year(million tonnes) Free cash flowFY 26 Onslow(FOB AUD 58), $ m 05-May-25 53 78113 207 4.14 28.5 $902 11-May-25 47 80851 190 3.8 29.5 $934 20-May-25 38 82632 157 3.14 30.2 $954 01-Jun-25 26 92308 120 2.4 33.7 $1,066 Current 14 98571 69 1.38 36.0 $1,138 Free cash flow (FCF) estimates (entire business) Fy 26 Fy 27 Fy 28 Mkt cap $ m FCF $ m 1150 1386 865 4063 Price/FCF 3.5 2.9 4.7 FCF % of mkt cap (Fy 26 to 28) 84% Unloads by Transhipper since 5 May 2025 Iron Ore price US$ Airlie Coolibah Montebello Rosily Peak $94.65 47 51 47 51 10.5 Aud Usd 0.655
MinRes Onslow estimated EBITDA per tonne Aus $ (mining + mining services) 30.8 Date since Total days Rate shipped per day tonnes Total transhipper unloads Total shipped (tonnes million) Rate per year(million tonnes) Free cash flowFY 26 Onslow(FOB AUD 58), $ m 05-May-25 53 78113 207 4.14 28.5 $879 11-May-25 47 80851 190 3.8 29.5 $910 20-May-25 38 82632 157 3.14 30.2 $930 01-Jun-25 26 92308 120 2.4 33.7 $1,039 Current 14 98571 69 1.38 36.0 $1,110 Free cash flow (FCF) estimates (entire business) Fy 26 Fy 27 Fy 28 Mkt cap $ m FCF $ m 1124 1360 846 4063 Price/FCF 3.6 3.0 4.8 FCF % of mkt cap (Fy 26 to 28) 82% Unloads by Transhipper since 5 May 2025 Iron Ore price US$ Airlie Coolibah Montebello Rosily Peak $93.55 47 51 47 51 10.5 Aud Usd 0.655
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Min Res Iron ore sensitivity with it going up a further 1.3% today
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Last
$38.51 |
Change
0.080(0.21%) |
Mkt cap ! $7.567B |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
$38.01 | $39.24 | $37.87 | $55.38M | 1.438M |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
3 | 135 | $38.47 |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
$38.53 | 5000 | 1 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
3 | 135 | 38.470 |
1 | 500 | 38.400 |
1 | 38 | 38.390 |
1 | 10836 | 38.310 |
2 | 577 | 38.270 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
38.550 | 5924 | 1 |
38.600 | 11156 | 3 |
38.640 | 1475 | 3 |
38.820 | 650 | 1 |
39.000 | 5229 | 5 |
Last trade - 16.13pm 18/09/2025 (20 minute delay) ? |
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MIN (ASX) Chart |