My view is this is much better than expected result hitting or...

My view is this is much better than expected result hitting or exceeding the top end of most guidance, so the stock will be up a lot today.

Shorts in deep, deep trouble.

I'm interested in others views.

Here are my key points on why the MIn Res quarterly result was outstanding and the stock will go up a lot today:

1: Guidance for Onslow for Fy 26, 30 m to 33 m t pa, i will take that any day of the week. That is the most important aspect of the result:
To get that, they will do say 29 m t for July, August whilst Haul Rd upgrade finishes, then 32 m in September, and then 35 m t per month for every other month, other than 3 months of cyclone season at 30 m t pa (Jan to March). That is a very good run rate. Hopefully they can knock off the $200 m Morgan Stanley bullet payment October to December.

2: Onslow FOB cost $57, that is again really good, i was hoping for $58, total FOB cost was $63, lower end of $60 to $70 guidance range. Even without autonomy, FOB cost likely now be in a $54 to $57 range with the higher volumes from now. That is really, really good.

3: Net debt, $5.35 m, lower than last quarter even though they spent $380 m cap EX. Incredible. I was expecting $5.4 to $5.6. Net debt now comes down sharply from here as the cap ex basically finishes from the end of August. There are quite a few one offs in this number eg asset sales, write downs etc, $250 m currency revalue etc. So don't worry so much about the actual number. But it is not higher, which is what we want.

4: Carry loan repay: $23 m for 20% of cash flows. If we say Onslow was only operating properely for 1.5 months of the quarter, then normalised Onslow operating cash flow is 23/.2* 12/1.5= $920 m per year, of which MIn Res gets a $552 m share at 60%, and a $736 m share of mineco operating cash flow over the next few years at 80%! And it gets even more with Iron Ore higher now at 103.8! Onslow Mineco going to be generating a lot of free cash flow for MIN!.

5: Mining services: The margin was $2.20, that was the top of guidance of $2.10 to $2.20!

6: Wodgina SC6 cost of $641, lowest ever, and Mt Marion again good at $717; looks like permanent operating cost reductions at both mines. The final quarter operating costs for both mines below average costs for the year: Mt Marion $717 is 20% below $902 average. Wodgina $641 versus $849, 24% below year average.

A very good result on most aspects.

Great also Lithium didn't lose much with the very low prices in the quarter, and if they can keep the operating costs where they are, company will also generate a lot of cash from Lithium at current spot prices.