Mind the Gap, page-57

I'll do a more detailed analysis in a few days.

Look at the ever increasing number of shares in issue

2017 . 235 million

2018. 287 million What

2019 316 million

2020. 541 milliona

Its not hard to imagine that within a few years they will have a fully diluted issued capital of 1 Billion shares

They have not reinvented the wheel they are for all intents and purposes a money lender albeit on very thin margins.

Industry average PE in bull market 15-20

Industry average PE in bear market = 6

Bull markets do not last forever and we are at the start of a 25 year commodity super cycle affecting production costs and bottom lines and a so cyclical bear market for equities.

The market is slowly coming to the realisation that none of these BNPL stocks have a path to profitability.

So with 1 Billion shares in issue and a PE of$ 6 they need to generate a NPAT of $166 million

Even in a bull market they need to generate $66 million NPAT to justify a Billion Dollar market cap.

Either way equates to a share price of $1

They are a million miles from this and the business model is simply not scalable as it relies on never ending customer recruitment to replace the high churn rate.

Eventually one of the BNPL will not be able to raise more capital anf will go bust and the contagion effect will send all other BNPL stocks crashing