Since you are quoting my post, and obviously a little out of context. AVZ will end up with 75% of the project after they stump up the additional equity, and the SEZ I presume, assuming viability of the project, is intended to compensate investors for the capex (assuming the capex is not provided on the proportion of equity in the project of each participant). All IMO IMO
In AVZ hands
To be specific what I said in my posts is the project in AVZ hands will come on scale as planned by AVZ - 700,000 tpa spodumene production of which 153,000 tpa is used to produce 45,000 tpa of sulphate. The production schedule matches the infrastructure ability, hopefully, that AVZ can access. From there in time AVZ will increase production through subsequent ramp ups to take advantage of the 3 TWh by 2030.
The DFS showed the project was viable at this level, assuming spodumene prices return to historical averages of about US$600 per tonne - US$700 per tonne.
These demand forecasts are explained in
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Obviously the above calcs are spodumene equivalent by the way, so brine will play a role as well, albeit in the growing lithium hydroxide market, hard rock is likely more preferred. As a point of reference, in 2020 GWH demand was 300GWh, so 3,000 GWH in 2030 is a ten fold increase.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1103218/global-battery-demand-forecast/
Also understand the conversions in the table - if your deposit grades 1.25% Li20, then you need 6 tonnes or ore at a 80% recovery rate to produce 1 tonne 6% grade spodume. A battery has 0.9kg LCE per kWh. So,
for every 1 million new EV passenger vehicles, an equivalent 45,000 tonnes LCE is needed at a installed battery size of 50 kWh assumption (which roughly translates to 45 kg of LCE in each battery). For every 1,000,000 EV's it will need the equivalent, at the mine site, of the addition of a 2 mtpa ore feed facility producing some 340,000 tonnes of 6% grade spodumene (assuming ore grade is 1.26% for example and yes I know it is higher for AVZ). Or another way to look at it 2.94 EVs are produced per tonne of 6% grade spodumene concentrate - I gave a lot of conversion data in the Understanding Lithium Demand thread btw. Without significant expansion, PLS will pale into insignificance with the growth rates currently suggested for lithium (albeit I do think the purchase of AJM was a very good move for it given the AJM resource is coarser than the PLS resource - bottom half of
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In Chinese hands
Well you see that production profile, well the Chinese are likely to triple or quadruple it is my point very very quickly, and you see that transport bottleneck they will ensure it is fixed very quickly. What does that mean for say the likes of PLS - well if they don't find alternate markets they are screwed. The Chinese will enter production at the proposed AVZ scale but will ramp up the project a lot quicker is my point.
Pretty simple, understanding how Chinese operate. They have longer term visions and different economic/viability parameters and can get things done. They will ensure with the resource size AVZ has they will be able to exploit it to their advantage, just like they did with rare earths, and when they had majority ownership of Greenbushes. You do recall that prior to 2016, Greenbushes accounted for 40% of the world's spodumene production.
If you not teh current trade war of punishment - the Chinese have cut supply/imposed tariffs on commodities it has access to away from Oz. (Iron ore has survived because of no alternate suppy option at this stage noting Brazil has had a few issues). Get Manono, well they have an alternate supply source to play with the market and existing producers.
PLS does not have the resources to control the market, full stop. Refer above table and embedded post to understand it.
All IMO
(20min delay)