Lets look at forward fundamentals.
If NCM can meet guidelines for FY 2012-13 as the company has re-confirmed
then it will have to produce 1.3 mil ozs for H2 to June 2013.
Now let us annualise this going forward; thats 2.6 million ozs P/A.
To achieve $2 EPS NCM will have to have $1.53 billion NPAT or
$588 NPAT/oz. ( 765 mil shares issued )
Last year with poxy production due to breakdowns NCM's NPAT
was $1.117 bln for 2.286 ozs AU produced or $487 NPAT/oz.
We just need to improve NPAT/oz by $100 and produce as forecast
and that the average POG stays up over $1609/oz (Last years average)
and we're there . The market will price NCM to at least 16 P/E.
This will give us a SP based on fundamentals (not short term technicals)
of over $32.
I'm a long term investor.
To those gambling on short term direction, good luck.
Cheers
Moorookamick
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